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Arabic Title

قياس التضخم واختلال سعر الصرف في الجزائر باستخدام معايرة نصاب (2024– الذهب (2010

Abstract

This study proposes a gold-based calibration framework to measure real inflation and exchange rate misalignment in Algeria over the period 2010–2024, addressing the limitations of conventional monetary indicators in a resource-dependent economy characterized by structural distortions and a dual exchange rate system. Anchored in the Islamic Nisab threshold (85 grams of gold), the analysis constructs gold-based inflation indices and Gold-Parity Exchange Rates, which are systematically compared with official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and nominal exchange rates published by the Bank of Algeria in order to assess the extent of dinar misalignment against the US dollar and the euro. The results reveal that cumulative gold-based inflation reached 229.1%, more than double the officially reported CPI inflation of 107.5%, indicating a substantial underestimation of purchasing power erosion in official statistics. Moreover, while the gold-benchmarked dinar exhibits alternating episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation against the US dollar, it remains persistently undervalued relative to the euro throughout the sample period. By applying a culturally and institutionally grounded Islamic benchmark, this study makes an original contribution to the literature on inflation measurement and currency valuation in Islamic economics, offering a universal reference point that is independent of domestic price distortions. Despite limitations related to the use of annual data and the assumption of long-run stability in the real value of gold—where price volatility may introduce measurement noise—the findings underscore important policy implications, notably the need for greater transparency in inflation measurement, more flexible exchange rate management, and the integration of gold-based indicators as complementary tools in monetary policy assessment.

First Page

19

Last Page

40

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