Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty in Fiqh and Economics

Muhammad Anas bin Mustafa Al- Zarqa, Chief Consultant, Shura Sharia Consultancy, Kuwait
Mohammed bin Ibrahim Al-Suhaibani, Association for Social Economics, Saudi ArabiaFollow

Abstract

This paper examines the concept of acting upon conjecture (ẓann) through an interdisciplinary lens, integrating Islamic jurisprudence and modern economic theory. It focuses on decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty, distinguishing between risk—which is quantifiable—and uncertainty, which relies on subjective judgment. The study explores behavioral attitudes toward risk (aversion, neutrality, and preference) and their implications for strategic decision-making. From a jurisprudential standpoint, the paper highlights the epistemic limitations of human knowledge, particularly regarding the unseen (ghayb), and the consequent reliance on probabilistic reasoning in Islamic legal thought. It compares classical epistemic categories (yaqīn, ẓann, shakk, wahm, and muḥāl) with contemporary probabilistic concepts, using a threshold-based table to illustrate points of convergence. The paper also draws parallels between statistical significance and the juristic threshold of acceptable conjecture (ḥadd al-tawahhum), offering examples from acts of worship and financial transactions that rest on strong probabilistic foundations. Moreover, it cautions against overreliance on modern forecasting tools, emphasizing that uncertainty remains an inherent feature of decision-making, as demonstrated by historical and economic cases. The potential of artificial intelligence to enhance conjectural judgments is briefly discussed. The study concludes that acting on well-founded conjecture is not only permissible but necessary within Islamic law, provided it adheres to juristic criteria. It recommends integrating training in statistics and mathematics into juristic education and proposes further research—such as a comparative study between the maritime rule of General Average and Imam Mālik’s juristic reasoning on distributing losses among merchants when the property of some is sacrificed to avert a greater danger threatening all.

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Recommended Citation

Al- Zarqa, Muhammad Anas bin Mustafa and Al-Suhaibani, Mohammed bin Ibrahim (2025) "Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty in Fiqh and Economics," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics: Vol. 38: Iss. 3, Article 1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64064/1658-4244.1007